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Journal of Physical Studies 11(3), 334–338 (2007)
DOI: https://doi.org/10.30970/jps.11.334 A STUDY OF MORFODYNAMIC OF ACTIVE REGIONS ON THE SUN FOR SHORT-TERM FLARE PROGNOSISM. Koval'chuk, M. Hirnyak
Ivan Franko National University of Lviv, |
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A statistical analysis of the behaviour of main descriptions of solar activity – floccules, spots and flares – is made. The prognosis of flash activity of the whole active region is carried out. The observing basis of data of the state of solar photosphere and chromosphere was received at the Astronomical Observatory of the Lviv University. It was also supplemented by Internet sources. The pattern recognition method was applied. The probability of the appearance of flares in groups of spots as follows: mistaken prognosis is equal to 17\0f the number all the group of spots (131); uncertain prognosis – 3\%; correct prognosis – 80\%.
PACS number(s): 96.60. Fs