DOI: https://doi.org/10.30970/jps.12.4003
STATISTICAL APPROACH TO Dst PREDICTION
A. S. Parnowski
Space Research Institute NASU \& NSAU,
40, prosp. Akad. Glushkova, Kyiv--187, 03680 MSP, Ukraine
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Journal of Physical Studies 12(4), Article 4003 [4 pages] (2008)
DOI: https://doi.org/10.30970/jps.12.4003 STATISTICAL APPROACH TO Dst PREDICTIONA. S. Parnowski
Space Research Institute NASU \& NSAU, |
|
Using an unbiased statistical approach we construct a phenomenological model of solar wind -- magnetosphere interaction. This model allows measuring relative geoeffectiveness of different physical parameters, uncovering some empirical dependencies, accurately predicting the geomagnetic activity up to 3 hours ahead, and estimating the geomagnetic activity up to 9 hours ahead. For 1-hour forecast we have linear correlation LC = 0.987 and prediction efficiency PE = 0.975. For 3-hour forecast we have LC = 0.906 and PE = 0.899. For 9-hour forecast we have LC = 0.820 and PE = 0.711.
PACS number(s): 02.70.Rr, 94.05.Sd, 94.05.Sx, 94.30.Lr, 94.30.Vf