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Journal of Physical Studies 19(3), Article 3003 [8 pages] (2015)
DOI: https://doi.org/10.30970/jps.19.3003 THE COMBINED APPROACH FOR SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION WITH A GUARANTEED METHOD AND EVOLUTIONARY ALGORITHMOleh Semeniv
Space Research Institute of NASU & SSAU, |
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The problem of space weather prediction using guaranteed approach and solar wind parameters is considered. The original approach for space weather prediction based on a discrete dynamic model, evolutionary algorithm and a guaranteed interval estimation method is proposed. The problem of discrete model identification is formulated as a nonlinear programming problem with constraints. A new algorithm of $Dst$-index prediction using guaranteed interval estimation method is described. The model for the prediction of geomagnetic storms was constructed and the interaction between the solar wind parameters and the magnetosphere was discussed. The dependence between prediction accuracy and the forecasting horizon is analyzed.
PACS number(s): 02.70.Rr, 94.05.Sd, 94.05.Sx, 94.30.Lr, 94.30.Vf