Journal of Physical Studies 23(1), Article 1901 [5 pages] (2019)
DOI: https://doi.org/10.30970/jps.23.1901

GUARANTEED NARMAX MODEL FOR THE PREDICTION OF GEOMAGNETIC Dst INDEX

V. O. Yatsenko, S. M. Ivanov, A. Parnowski, D. Vlasov

Space Research Institute of NAS of Ukraine and SSA of Ukraine,
40, Glushkov Ave., Kyiv, UA-03187, Ukraine

Theoretical analysis of the guaranteed prediction model of the $D_{\rm st}$ index has been conducted. A new identification approach for the $D_{\rm st}$ index prediction model using experimental data and an evolutionary algorithm has been proposed. All models are based on an observational data set consisting of $VB_s$, the solar wind parameters as the input and the $D_{\rm st}$ index as the output. This method showed a number of advantages over the earlier proposed methods of space weather forecasting. First, using the dynamic-information approach it is possible to automatically select the most significant regressors from the history of the experimental data. Secondly, it becomes possible to automatically reconstruct a mathematical model and search for optimal model parameters.

PACS number(s): 91.25.-r, 02.60.Gf, 05.45.Pq, 05.45.Tp

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